Tag: US

‘Millennial socialism’ & the swing of the political pendulum back to the left

‘Millennial socialism’ & the swing of the political pendulum back to the left – what it means for investors Key points CGrowing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left. Support for economic rationalist policies has fallen.   The risk is that the shift away from economic rationalist policies to greater intervention will contribute to constrained medium-term investment returns.   Introduction …

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Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year Key points After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns.   Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the …

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Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results

Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results – should investors be worried? Key points It’s still too early to be sure that last month’s pullback in shares is over but we remain of the view that it was not the start of a deep bear market and that the trend in shares remains up   Worries around US interest rates, trade wars, European politics etc are unlikely to be terminal.   …

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Econosights- The US economy – upcoming midterm elections & its impact

Econosights – The US economy – upcoming midterm elections & its impact Key points Upcoming US midterm elections may see the Republican party lose its majority in one or both houses of Congress which could make passing policy changes more difficult for the government. But, policy already passed (including tax reform) will be difficult to reverse.   Impeachment investigations against Trump are likely if Democrats gain a majority in the House, which would lead to …

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Market correction or market downturn?

Market correction or market downturn? It’s understandable that the recent sharp sell-off on financial markets has left investors feeling particularly nervous. The main concern has been the US Federal Reserve’s shift in monetary policy from low rates and printing money to rising rates and the withdrawal of that printing policy. But there’s also a lengthy worry list of issues that we hear continuously: the US trade conflict with China, issues around the leadership of President …

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An update on the US rate rise

An update on the US rate rise   Although we’ve seen declines on Wall Street this week, there’s still strong growth in the US market. The most recent rate hike in the US may have investors concerned that the Fed could threaten markets with even more aggressive hikes. But I don’t think that is likely; I expect the Fed will continue raising interest rates at a gradual pace. The latest 25 basis point rise takes …

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US reporting season and the tech sector

US reporting season and the tech sector   AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says revenue disappointments and slowing user growth at technology giants Facebook and Twitter is a warning that the US tech sector could at some stage underperform – or even suffer a serious correction. “What those disappointments tell us is there is a limit to the take up of social media,” he says. “At some point it will start to slow down.” …

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Trumponomics and investment markets

Trumponomics and investment markets Key points So far President Trump has been positive for share markets but this year the focus is increasingly shifting to populist policies with greater risk for investors. The key risks to keep an eye on in this regard relate to trade conflict and the expanding US budget deficit, although the latter is more a risk for when the US economy next turns down. However, the best approach for investors in …

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The US economy – does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent?

The US economy – does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent? Key points If you are worried about a major bear market, the US economy is the key to watch. While traditional measures of the US yield curve have flattened sending warning signs about future growth, it has given false signals in the past, is still positive and other versions of the yield curve point to rising growth. Moreover, apart from very low …

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US China trade war fears – Q & A

US China trade war fears – Q & A Key points President Trump’s actions on trade are mainly aimed at achieving better access for US exports to China and better treatment of US intellectual property by China. They are not primarily aimed at traditional US allies, reducing the risk of a global trade war. So far there is only a “phoney trade war” between the US and China as major tariffs are only “proposed”. Signs …

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