Econosights – An update on Brexit Key points Brexit defeat could be a positive for the UK and Euro economies Theresa May likely to survive vote of no confidence The impact on Australia of Brexit uncertainty is minimal While Theresa May’s proposed Brexit plan suffered a large defeat in the UK parliament overnight, it may actually result in a “softer” Brexit outcome overall, which would be positive for the UK economy (and by …
Econosights – The US economy – upcoming midterm elections & its impact Key points Upcoming US midterm elections may see the Republican party lose its majority in one or both houses of Congress which could make passing policy changes more difficult for the government. But, policy already passed (including tax reform) will be difficult to reverse. Impeachment investigations against Trump are likely if Democrats gain a majority in the House, which would lead to …
Econosights – Should we worry about emerging markets? Key Points Emerging market equities have performed poorly since the beginning of the year. More recently, trade tensions between the US and China, a rising US dollar and issues in individual emerging market economies have hit emerging markets. The last emerging market downturn was in 2015 on the back of Chinese growth concerns, a devaluation in the Chinese Yuan and Fed interest rate hike fears. Emerging market …
How are Australia’s states and territories tracking? An end to the fall in mining investment is helping to stabilise growth in Australia’s mining states and territories (WA, Qld and NT to a lesser extent) while a slowing housing sector is starting to act as a drag on NSW and Vic. Tas is benefitting from a lift in population growth and housing “refugee” demand from Sydney and Melbourne. Growth in SA and the ACT has been …
Econosights – Five Global Risks to Watch The global economic upswing is expected to remain in place for now which is good news for growth assets. But there are still plenty of downside risks to the growth outlook. We explore five key areas we are watching. Introduction We remain positive around the outlook for the global economy over the next year. But there are still numerous downside risks to growth that could cause issues for …
Econosights – The end of Japanese stagnation? Key points Years of low growth and inflation are gradually turning around in Japan thanks to the slow-moving impacts of Abenomics combined with a strong global economy. A lift in growth and employment reforms are increasing participation in the labour market, adding to an already tight labour market. Recent wage agreements will add to inflation. The solid economic cycle and good corporate health is positive news for Japanese …
