Gradually maturing investment cycle What is the risk of US recession

The “gradually” maturing investment cycle – what is the risk of a US recession?

The “gradually” maturing investment cycle – what is the risk of a US recession? Key points With inflationary pressures starting to rise in the US the global investment cycle is starting to get more mature. This is likely to mean a further rise in bond yields and more share market volatility. However, there is still little sign of the sort of excesses that precede economic downturns, profit slumps and major bear markets suggesting that we …

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Australian’s love affair with debt – how big is the risk?

Australian’s love affair with debt – how big is the risk? Key points Household debt levels in Australia are high compared to other countries and still rising. The rise is not as bad as it looks because its been matched by rising wealth and debt servicing problems are low. However, this could change as interest rates rise and if home prices fall sharply. The trigger for major problems remains hard to see but its worth …

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5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market

5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market Despite concern, falling share prices are not necessarily a sign of a mild or major bear market situation, according to Dr Shane Oliver. The share market correction many people are talking about at the moment is causing concern for a number of investors, including those accumulating super and drawing money from their super savings, which is understandable given the rapid falls we’ve seen …

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Love and money? It’s not about control

Love and money? It’s not about control With Valentine’s Day around the corner, it’s a good time to explore shared ideas, and how you manage money as a twosome. Our approach to managing household finances can make a big difference to the health of a relationship. Thankfully, the old line about “I earn the money. She spends it” no longer has relevance in modern relationships. Today’s lifestyles, housing commitments and our career ambitions mean that …

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‘Volatility comes in clusters’: Dermot Ryan

‘Volatility comes in clusters’: Dermot Ryan Investors glued to their share portfolio screens recently following the abrupt share market selloff should expect to experience more of the same in the months ahead, according to Dermot Ryan, AMP Capital Income Equity Fund Co-Portfolio Manager.While more volatility can mean higher levels of anxiety for some investors, it can also bring opportunities to those able to stay calm during these periods, Ryan adds. “Volatility, where we haven’t seen …

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What high household debt means for investors

What high household debt means for investors “High house-hold debt is Australia’s Achilles heel,” says AMP Capital Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver. “I’ve been thinking this for many years now and yet it seems to keep going higher.” Latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics puts total household liabilities at $2.466 trillion, or 199.7 percent of disposable income, putting it among the highest in the world. Australians have …

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Beware the double-edged sword of US tax reform

Beware the double-edged sword of US tax reform Tax reform in the United States has helped to spur on global economic growth, but investors should be aware of the double-edged sword that comes with the added exuberance, as already expensive share markets continue to edge higher. While company earnings growth in the US – and indeed in Australia – are generally supportive valuations, according to Diana Mousina, AMP Capital’s Senior Economist, the continued strong run …

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Higher global inflation and higher bond yields – what’s the risk and implications for other assets?

01 February 2018 Higher global inflation and higher bond yields – what’s the risk and implications for other assets? Key points Rising global growth and rising commodity prices indicate the risks to inflation are gradually moving to the upside. This is most acute in the US with the Fed likely to raise rates more than the market expects this year. This supports the view that the 35-year super cycle decline in bond yields is over. …

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What’s in Store for Interest Rates, Housing Market and Australian & Global Economies in 2018?

What’s in Store for Interest Rates, Housing Market and Australian & Global Economies in 2018? Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, …

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The risk shares and bonds will no longer correlate

19 January 2018 The risk shares and bonds will no longer correlate There is an old saying that “diversification is the only free lunch in finance”. While this adage is often wrongly attributed to Harry Markowitz, it does a great job of articulating the essential insight in his Nobel Prize winning research. What people who’ve followed Markowitz’s know is the attractiveness of an asset in a portfolio doesn’t just depend on its own expected return …

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